By Correspondent
The expression of the week in the aftermath of US President Trump’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping has been the Thucydides Trap.
The expression refers to the idea that when a rising power threatens to displace an established one, the result is often war.
The expression was popularised by American political scientist Graham Allison in the early 2010s as “Thucydides Trap.”
In his book, The History of the Peloponnesian War, Greek historian Thucydides says: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.
In his opening remarks, Xi raised the story of the ancient war in a clear jab at America’s hegemonic position, which he feels China is about to upstage.
His worry isn’t whether China is able, but if America will have the common sense to appreciate that it is no longer the sole supreme superpower.
“Can China and the United States transcend the so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ and forge a new paradigm for major power relations?’
Chiwenga’s False Athenian Rise
In 2017 General Chiwenga crested the wave of his powers when he led the ousting of veteran leader Robert Mugabe and installed his Vice Emmerson Mnangagwa.
While it was Mnangagwa who assumed power, it was clear that the rising power then was Chiwenga.
He quickly transitioned from being the Commander Defence Forces and became the Vice President of the new dispensation.
Lauded across the political divide for dethroning an almost mythological Mugabe, Chiwenga was the darling of the masses.
While President Mnangagwa had the powers according to the Constitution, Chiwenga had the powers according to the people.
It was only a matter of time.
Even without any evidence, the believed position was that Chiwenga had struck a deal with ED.
President Mnangagwa would lead for his tenure and then hand over power to the General.
Many in the ruling party, ZANU PF, and the opposition outside were ready to accept the gentleman’s agreement to persist.
Athens was rising, and ED, the new Sparta, only needed to bow out with grace and allow nature to take its course.
Chiwenga Following Wrong Script
Then things started going in the wrong direction for Athens!
ED’s Sparta has systematically erased every other support structure which Chiwenga has had to the point that only a union with the opposition makes sense.
Currently, Chiwenga is celebrated by the opposition to an absurd level, considering how he has essentially been part of the system which has consistently derailed opposition ambitions.
However, his military background has been diluted with reshuffles, resignations and new appointments.
Inside the ruling party those seen as his supporters such as Obert Moyo, Anselem Sanyatwe, Gifford Gomwe, the Director General, Brigadier Gen (Rtd) Ezekiel Zabanyana etc have been shunted to the shadows.
Shadow projects aligned to him, such as the Blessed Geza-led social media campaign, have suffered tragedies and failed to gain traction on the ground.
The clear writing on the wall from the purge going on is that Chiwenga’s ambitions are now precariously hanging by a thread.
Whatever powers he had to engineer the removal of Mugabe appear to have been severely diminished.
Mnangagwa got into power well aware of the specific areas, angles and individuals who needed to be controlled and dealt with to block a repeat against himself.
So far, he has not just managed to do that but has in fact set in motion an alternative plan that appears to lead away from Chiwenga.
While China’s version of the Thucydides Trap has the Asian giant well on course to compete against or even usurp America, Chiwenga’s own political tale is quickly becoming a Greek tragedy.
——————————————————————————————————-
Love what we do?
We’re dedicated to opening up democracy, one article, video and story at a time. If you find our reporting helpful, you can support the Magamba Network team by buying us a coffee. It’s quick, easy, and makes a real difference!
———————————————————————————————————–
